PCB Market Current Situation and Development Trends

Domestic output value accounts for more than half of the world, and products are gradually moving towards high-end

China accounts for more than half of PCB output value and has gradually become the global PCB industry center. According to Prismark statistics, the total output value of the global PCB industry will reach 81.741 billion US dollars in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, an increase of nearly 200 million US dollars compared with 2018. In 2022, the total output value of China's PCB industry can reach 44.2 billion US dollars, accounting for 54.1% of the world's total.

The PCB industry has low concentration and the head effect is not obvious. In 2021, the CR3 concentration rate of the global printed circuit board (PCB) industry exceeds 15%, the CR5 concentration rate is about 25%, and the CR10 concentration rate is close to 40%. In terms of market size, the global PCB industry market size will be US$80.9 billion in 2021, of which the top ten PCB manufacturers have a total revenue of US$28.404 billion.

Ordinary multilayer boards are the mainstream products, while high-end products are increasing year by year. The supply of high-end products mainly comes from Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, and my country's PCB supply is generally concentrated in low-end multilayer boards. At present, developed countries have gradually withdrawn from the production of low-end and mid-range products. PCB products made in the United States are mainly high-rise boards with 18 or more layers. European products serve local industries including industrial instrumentation and control, medical, aerospace and automotive industries. Japan's PCB technology leader's main products are multilayer boards, flexible boards and packaging substrates. Taiwan's PCB is mainly composed of high-end HDI, IC carrier boards, and similar carrier boards. Overall, compared with countries such as Japan and South Korea, the proportion of high-end printed circuit boards in my country's PCB products is low. In 2021, multi-layer boards accounted for 47.6%, and single and double panels accounted for 15.5%; followed by HDI boards. The proportion reached 16.6%, the flexible board accounted for 15%, and the packaging substrate accounted for a smaller proportion, 5.3%. There is also much room for improvement in products with higher technical content.

Domestic PCB board manufacturers have achieved technological breakthroughs, and their products have gradually moved towards high-end. The maximum number of layers of products supplied by manufacturers such as Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd., Shennan Circuit, Shengyi Electronics, etc. can reach 40 layers. Shennan circuit backplane samples adopt materials mixing, partial mixing and other processes. The maximum number of layers can reach 120, and the number of layers in mass production can reach 68, which is a leading position in the industry. Hudian Electric Co., Ltd. and Shennan Circuit currently have mass production capabilities for Eagle Stream server PCB products, which can adapt to the production needs of leading server manufacturer Intel. In the field of high-end servers, other manufacturers are also actively deploying. New technologies developed by Pengding Holdings include cloud high-performance computing and AI server motherboard technology. Related products of Chongda Technology and Shenghong Technology for high-end servers have been shipped and applied one after another.

Domestic manufacturers are actively deploying PCBs for AI servers and have made positive progress

Domestic manufacturers are actively deploying AI server-related PCB products, and some products have been mass-produced. The complex and turbulent external environment such as the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts has prompted downstream manufacturers to actively promote the process of localization. Inspur ranks first in the world in terms of market share in the AI server field, and Baidu is its important customer. With the rising demand in the field of domestic artificial intelligence, domestic PCB manufacturers are actively promoting the research and development of AI server-related products. In the field of high-multilayer boards, Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd.'s EGS-class server products have been mass-produced on a large scale.

Market space: It is expected that global output value will reach US$98.388 billion in 2027

According to Prismark data, global PCB output value increased from US$55.325 billion to US$80.920 billion from 2015 to 2021, with an overall growth trend, with a CAGR of 6.54%. In 2021, benefiting from factors such as the phased alleviation of the epidemic, recovery in demand, and the rise of home office formats, the downstream industry has grown significantly, driving PCB sales and unit prices to rise, with global output value increasing by 24.07% year-on-year. The prosperity of the semiconductor industry will decline in 2022, but PCB downstream orders are stable and will be less affected by fluctuations. The global output value of PCB is expected to be US$81.741 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.01%. High inflation in 2023 will trigger sluggish demand for downstream consumer electronics, dealer inventories will be high, and global output is expected to decline by 4.13% year-on-year. In the future, 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, Industry 4.0, cloud servers, storage equipment, and automotive electronics will drive the growth of PCB demand. PCB output value is expected to resume growth in 2024, and global output value will reach US$98.388 billion in 2027.

In 2021, the multilayer board market will be the largest among rigid boards, accounting for 38.37%, followed by packaging substrates, which will account for 17.81%. Prismark predicts that packaging substrates will become the fastest-growing product type from 2021 to 2026, with a compound growth rate of 8.27%. The compound growth rates of HDI boards, flexible boards, multi-layer boards and single/double boards are 4.91%, 4.09%, 3.65% and 2.37% respectively.

development trend

(1) Industrial trend: shifting from developed regions to regions with low labor costs

At the end of the 20th century, the global PCB industry was dominated by Europe, the United States, and Japan. In the 21st century, the global electronic information industry has shifted from developed countries to emerging economies with lower labor costs. The global PCB market has experienced two industrial transfers from Europe and the United States to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and from Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to mainland China. Since 2016, mainland China's PCB output value has accounted for more than 50% of the world's total, making it the world's main PCB production base. In 2021, Asia will account for 86.39% of the global PCB output value, and mainland China's PCB output value will account for 54.56% of the global PCB output value. The PCB industry has formed an industrial structure with Asia as the leader and mainland China as the core.

According to Prismark statistics, mainland China's PCB output value will reach 44.15 billion US dollars in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.70%. Stimulated by demand from downstream areas such as communication equipment, computers, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, and industrial control. Mainland China's PCB output value is expected to continue to grow steadily in the next five years, with a CAGR of 4.34% from 2021 to 2026, and the output value will reach US$54.605 billion in 2026.

Mainland China's PCB industry is mainly concentrated in areas with developed electronic technologies such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim. At present, it is gradually shifting to inland provinces and cities with lower labor costs, especially in economic and industrial belts such as Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Chongqing, and production capacity in the central and western regions is growing rapidly.

Technology trends: PCB technology development trends are mainly reflected in miniaturization, high-rise building, flexibility and intelligence.

Miniaturization means that with the development of miniaturization and functional diversification of consumer electronics products, PCBs need to carry more components and reduce size, requiring PCBs to have higher precision and miniaturization capabilities. High-rise refers to the high-speed and high-frequency development of computers and servers in the 5G and AI era. PCB needs to work at high frequency and high speed, have stable performance, and undertake more complex functions. PCB is required to have more layers and a more complex structure. Flexibility means that with the rise of emerging applications such as wearable devices and flexible displays, PCBs need to have good flexibility and bendability to adapt to different shapes and spaces, requiring better flexibility and reliability of PCBs. Intelligence refers to the development of fields such as the Internet of Things and smart cars. PCB needs to have stronger data processing capabilities and intelligent control capabilities to achieve interconnection and automatic management between devices, requiring PCB to have a higher degree of integration and intelligence.

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