PCB industry status and forecast

1. PCB manufacturing industry gradually moves to mainland China

The PCB industry is widely distributed around the world and was dominated by developed countries in the United States, Europe, and Japan in the early days. Before 2000, the United States, Europe and Japan accounted for more than 70% of global PCB output value. However, in the past two decades, Asia, especially China, has attracted the transfer of global electronics manufacturing due to its advantages in labor, raw materials, policies and industrial clusters. Mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea and other places are gradually becoming new manufacturing centers. Since 2006, mainland China has surpassed Japan and become the world's largest PCB production base, marking a change in the industrial competition landscape. The proportion of PCB output value in mainland China to the total global PCB output value has increased from 8.1% in 2000 to 54.6% in 2021.

In 2023, the total revenue of the top ten domestic PCB listed companies will reach 140.046 billion yuan. Among them, Dongshan Precision has the largest revenue volume, with revenue reaching 33.651 billion yuan in 2023. The second largest company is Pengding Holdings, with revenue in 2023 reaching 32.066 billion yuan.

2. The market will enter a new growth cycle, and China’s PCB industry will continue to develop healthily.

The size of the global PCB market will shrink in 2023 due to destocking pressure and interest rate hikes to curb inflation. According to Prismark data, global PCB output value will drop 15% year-on-year to US$69.517 billion in 2023. However, as market inventory adjustments, weak consumer electronics demand and other issues enter the final stage, as well as the accelerated evolution of AI applications, PCB will enter a new growth cycle. It is expected to increase by about 5% year-on-year in 2024, and the utilization rate of PCB manufacturers is expected to rebound. . In the medium to long term, the global PCB industry will usher in a revival. It is expected that global PCB output value will reach US$90.413 billion in 2028, with a compound growth rate of 5.4% from 2023 to 2028. China's PCB industry continues to develop healthily. In 2023, mainland China's PCB output value will be US$37.794 billion, accounting for more than 50% of the global market share.

PCB inventories are gradually being digested and the industry is recovering moderately. Taiwan's PCB sector revenue reached NT$23.7 billion in January 2024, with month-on-month growth picking up at 10%, showing that the PCB industry is currently in a moderate recovery stage.

From an inventory perspective, PCB manufacturers' inventories have gradually decreased since 2022Q1, and destocking has basically ended. The industry may have entered the replenishment stage starting from 2023Q3.

3. According to product structure, multi-layer boards account for the mainstream

From the perspective of product structure, the top three products in the global PCB market in 2022 are multilayer boards, packaging substrates, and flexible plates, accounting for 36.5%, 21.3%, and 16.9% respectively. The Chinese market is dominated by multilayer boards, accounting for 49%, but they are mainly mid- to low-end products with less than 8 layers. The proportion of high-value products such as high-multilayer boards, high-end HDI boards, packaging substrates, etc. is still relatively low. . In recent years, domestically owned factories have actively developed their efforts in the high-end field, related products have gradually been launched, and production capacity has been further expanded. The proportion of high-end products is expected to increase in the future.

3. According to product structure, multilayer boards dominate

From the perspective of product structure, the Top 3 products in the global PCB market in 2022 are multilayer boards, packaging substrates, and flexible plates, accounting for 36.5%, 21.3%, and 16.9% respectively. The Chinese market is dominated by multilayer boards, accounting for 49%, but they are mainly mid-to-low-end products with less than 8 layers. The proportion of high-value products such as high-end multilayer boards, high-end HDI boards, packaging substrates, etc. is still low. ... In recent years, domestically-owned factories have been actively developing high-end products. Related products have been gradually launched and production capacity has been further expanded. The proportion of high-end products is expected to increase in the future.