PCB Global Market Size and Trends

According to the Prismark report, the total global PCB output value will be US$81.74 billion in 2022. Driven by the packaging substrate market, the output value will increase by 1.0% year-on-year. After experiencing a general boom in global electronic products in 2021. In 2022, due to rising inflation and weakening terminal demand, most product areas of global electronic complete machines will decline. In particular, the decline in demand for PCBs from PCs, TVs, games and consumer electronics has dragged down the overall growth of the PCB industry.

Figure 1 Global PCB output value and growth rate 2012-2022

Data source: Based on Prismark’s historical data, compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Research Institute.

The PCB industry is in a new cycle of growth. Markets such as wireless communications, servers and data storage, new energy, smart driving, and consumer electronics will continue to be important long-term growth drivers for the industry. Product technology upgrades and application scenarios expansion such as 5G communications, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, electric smart connected cars, smart wearables, smart homes, and the Internet of Everything are increasing PCB usage. It also further drives the growth of demand for high-multi-layer, high-frequency and high-speed products. Prismark predicts that by 2026, the global PCB output value will reach 101.559 billion US dollars.

——5G communications. According to a report from Zhongtai Securities, the value of PCBs in 5G macro base stations is about 3-4 times that of 4G. In addition, due to the shrinking of high-frequency coverage radius, more base stations are needed for the same coverage, which also leads to an increase in PCB usage. The scale of investment in the construction of 5G micro base stations will be much higher than that in the 4G era. At the same time, investment in routers, switches, IDC and other equipment required to carry larger bandwidth traffic will further increase. Affected by this, the market demand for PCB, especially high-end PCB products, will increase significantly.

--AI. The demand for PCBs in AI servers is growing rapidly, and Trend Force predicts that global AI server shipments will continue to increase, with a CAGR of 10.8% from 2022 to 2026. According to Prismark data, the output value of PCB for servers will reach US$13.3 billion in 2026, with a five-year CAGR of 11%, which is faster than other PCB categories.

——Intelligent driving. According to a Tianfeng Securities report, benefiting from the drive of the “four modernizations” of automobiles, the value of bicycle PCBs has increased to around 1,200 yuan to 3,000 yuan. The gradual increase in the penetration rate of autonomous driving has also strengthened the demand for high-value PCB products such as HDI. It is expected that China's new energy vehicle PCB market will rise from 1.196 billion yuan in 2019 to 13.494 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 49.76%.

--Consumer Electronics. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2023, global consumer electronics will show signs of recovery, and the release of Apple's MR products is expected to lead a new round of consumer electronics product innovation cycle and drive demand for FPC soft boards. Currently, 10-20 FPCs are used in a single machine in AR/VR equipment. Tianfeng Securities predicts that the output value of FPC in virtual reality equipment will reach US$2.94-5.88 billion in 2025.

Mainland China is the main production region of the global PCB industry. After 2000, as the electronic information industry shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, especially mainland China, the scale of PCB manufacturing in the Asia-Pacific region grew rapidly. Since 2006, mainland China has surpassed Japan and become the world's largest PCB manufacturing base. PCB output value accounts for 54.6% of the world's total output value, rising from 8.1% in 2000. Almost all multinational PCB companies have established bases in mainland China. In 2022, mainland China's PCB output value will be US$43.553 billion, accounting for 53.28% of the global total output value. In the medium and long term, Asia will still dominate the PCB industry, and Mainland China will still dominate. Prismark predicts that by 2026, the output value of Mainland China's PCB industry will reach US$54.605 billion.

Figure 2 PCB output value in mainland China and its global share

Data source: Based on Prismark data over the years, compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Research Institute.

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