The PCB industry is a basic industry for the manufacture of electronic information products and is greatly affected by cyclical fluctuations in the macro-economy. At present, global printed circuit board manufacturing companies are mainly distributed in mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe and Southeast Asia. my country's PCB industry has become the world's largest production base, and the impact of changes in the international political and economic environment on the domestic printed circuit board industry is becoming increasingly obvious.
The global PCB industry has recovered significantly and maintained a growth trend in the medium and long term
2023 is a challenging year for the global PCB industry. The impact of weak demand, severe backlog of inventory, oversupply and price erosion runs through the entire industry. Global PCB production fell to only US$69.5 billion in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%.
In the first half of 2024, due to improved inventory and gradual recovery of demand, the PCB industry began to show signs of recovery. Observing the current destocking speed and rhythm, it is expected to continue to improve by the end of the year. In the second half of 2024, the inventory of most subdivided application areas will be fully normalized. 2024 is a year of recovery. According to Prismark's estimates, the PCB market as a whole will achieve positive growth, with output value expected to increase by about 5.0% year-on-year and area expected to increase by about 7.2% year-on-year. The higher growth in area relative to output value reflects the expected impact of continued price erosion.
It is normal for the PCB industry to experience a cycle from strong growth to weak growth or even contraction. In the medium and long term, artificial intelligence, HPC, communication infrastructure, automotive electronics, portable smart consumer electronic devices with advanced artificial intelligence capabilities, etc. are expected to generate incremental demand.
Based on the low base in 2023, Prismark predicts that the PCB market will grow from US$69.5 billion in 2023 to US$90.4 billion in 2028, with a five-year CAGR of about 5.4%. Southeast Asia is expected to achieve the highest growth rate in the next five years. China will continue to maintain its position as the industry's leading manufacturing center, but due to the product structure of China's PCB industry and some production transfers to Southeast Asia, Prismark predicts that China's PCB output value will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 4.2% from 2023 to 2028, slightly lower than the global level. It is expected that China's PCB output value will reach about US$46.5 billion by 2028.
Prismark predicts that all segments of the multilayer PCB market will grow, and it is expected to grow from US$26.5 billion in 2023 to US$32.5 billion in 2028, with a five-year average annual compound growth rate of about 4.4%, among which the server/data storage field will grow the strongest, followed by military, wired infrastructure and automobiles.
Multilayer boards occupy a major market position, and high-performance products will grow faster in the future
With the innovative development of industries such as AI, data centers, VR/AR, new energy vehicles and intelligent driving, downstream application fields have put forward higher requirements for the performance of PCBs, such as high frequency, high speed, high voltage, heat resistance, and low loss. According to Prismark's forecast, the global PCB output value will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2023 to 2028, reaching US$90.413 billion in 2028. Among them, 18+ multilayer boards, HDI, and package substrates will grow rapidly, with compound annual growth rates of 10%, 7.1%, and 8.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028. In terms of output value, multilayer boards are the main product category, with an output value of US$26.535 billion in 2023, accounting for 38.2% of the total output value, and a output value of US$32.483 billion in 2028, accounting for 35.9% of the total output value.
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